Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAbout2nd QuarterGraystone Consulting QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE Scott Owens, CFA°, CIMA° Associate Vice President Institutional Consultant SUMMARY Prepared for: As of June 30, 2018 Graystone Consulting Tampa Charles H. Mulfinger, II, CIMA° Managing Director, Wealth Management Institutional Consulting Director David A. Wheeler, CFP°, CIMA° Alternative Investment Director Senior Vice President 100 North Tampa Street, Suite 3000 Tampa, FL 33602 800-282-0655, ext. 2061 / 813-227-2061 Institutional Consulting Director Institutional Consultant Equity Market % Returns for PeriodU.S. the Ending June 30, 2018 Three Years Five Years Seven Years Quarter 12 Months (annualized) (annualized) (annualized) S&P 500 Index 3.43 14.37 11.93 13.43 13.24 Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.26 16.31 14.07 12.95 12.85 Russell 1000 Index 3.57 14.54 11.64 13.37 13.12 Russell 1000 Growth Index 5.76 22.51 14.98 16.36 14.88 Russell 1000 Value Index 1.18 6.77 8.26 10.35 11.27 Russell 2000 Index 7.75 17.57 10.96 12.46 11.83 Russell 2000 Growth Index 7.23 21.86 10.60 13.65 12.50 Russell 2000 Value Index 8.30 13.10 11.22 11.18 11.10 Russell 3000 Index 3.89 14.78 11.58 13.29 13.02 Russell 3000 Growth Index 5.87 22.47 14.63 16.14 14.69 Russell 3000 Value Index 1.71 7.25 8.48 10.40 11.25 Russell Midcap Index 2.82 12.33 9.58 12.22 11.88 Russell Midcap Growth Index 3.16 18.52 10.73 13.37 12.16 Russell Midcap Value Index 2.41 7.60 8.79 11.27 11.69 Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Source: MAX Quarter Energy 13.50 Consumer Discretionary 8.20 Information Technology 7.10 Real Estate 6.10 Utilities 3.70 Health Care 3.10 Materials 2.60 Telecommunication Services (0.90) Consumer Staples (1.50) Industrials (3.20) Financials (3.20) Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Source: MAX Page 1 U.S. Dollar Local Currency Quarter 12 Months Quarter 12 Months Regional and Other Multi Country Indices MSCI EAFE (1.24) 6.84 3.75 6.65 MSCI Europe (1.27) 5.28 4.51 4.95 MSCI Far East (2.83) 10.54 0.68 9.24 MSCI Pacific ex. Japan 1.78 8.68 4.54 15.88 MSCI The World 1.93 11.70 3.85 11.52 MSCI World ex. U.S. (0.75) 7.04 4.04 7.05 National Indices MSCI Hong Kong (1.18) 9.18 (1.21) 9.69 MSCI Ireland 2.07 5.71 N/A N/A MSCI Japan (2.80) 10.88 1.23 9.31 MSCI Singapore (7.49) 7.94 (3.82) 6.92 Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Source: MAX Markets Equity % Returns for PeriodEmerging the Ending June 30, 2018 U.S. Dollar Local Currency Quarter 12 Months Quarter 12 Months Regional and Other Multi Country Indices MSCI EM (7.86) 8.59 (3.41) 10.86 National Indices MSCI China (3.44) 21.42 (3.43) 21.92 MSCI Malaysia (11.44) 5.56 (3.43) 21.92 MSCI Taiwan (6.06) 4.72 (1.77) 4.96 MSCI Thailand (14.92) 12.35 (14.92) 12.35 Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Source: MAX Page 2 U.S. Fixed Income 90-Day Treasury Bill Barclays Capital Aggregate Barclays Capital Credit Barclays Capital Govt/Credit Barclays Capital Government Barclays Capital High Yield Barclays Capital Intermediate Govt/Credit Barclays Capital Long Govt/Credit Barclays Capital Mortgage Backed Barclays Capital Municipal Three Years Five Years 10 Years Quarter 12 Months (annualized) (annualized) (annualized) 0.44 1.32 0.64 0.40 0.28 (0.16) (0.40) 1.72 2.27 3.72 (0.88) (0.65) 2.18 2.96 4.94 (0.33) (0.63) 1.83 2.28 3.77 0.10 (0.63) 1.02 1.48 2.91 1.03 2.62 4.68 5.00 6.89 0.01 (0.58) 1.16 1.60 3.08 (1.45) (0.78) 4.34 5.09 6.78 0.24 0.15 1.46 2.32 3.86 0.87 1.56 2.85 3.53 4.43 Global Fixed Income Merrill Lynch Global High Yield (1.29) 2.08 Barclays Global Treasury ex. U.S. (5.02) 2.71 Barclays Capital Majors ex. U.S. (4.81) 3.10 Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Source: MAX 5.46 4.79 7.98 3.75 1.14 1.92 3.76 0.99 1.95 Page 3 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of June 30, 2018 Quarterly Summary of Relevant Facts Graystone Consulting Distribution of Assets: Other Important Facts: Equity Total Portfolio $14,570,622 -Large Cap. Value $3,282,719 Total Gain/(Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $240,805 -Large Cap. Growth $2,788,388 Total Fees ($33,660) -SMID Cap. Value $712,242 Total Gain/(Loss) - Net -of -Fees $207,145 -SMID Cap. Growth $793,493 -International Value $723,428 Highland - Large Cap Value Highland - Large Cap Growth -International Growth $1,005,529 Total Assets $3,282,719 Total Assets $2,788,388 Total Equity $9,305,799 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $58,174 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $144,097 Fixed $3,550,598 Fees ($3,831) Fees ($3,309) MLPs $608,456 Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $54,343 Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $140,788 Private Real Estate $681,630 Cash $424,139 Boston Partners - SMID Value Fiera Capital - SMID Growth Total Portfolio $14,570,622 Total Assets $712,242 Total Assets $793,493 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $18,344 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $13,145 Distribution by Percentages: Policy Current Range Fees ($3,546) Fees ($1,467) Equity Breakdown Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $14,798 Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $11,678 -Large Cap. Value 21.25% 22.53% 15.00 - 25.00% -Large Cap. Growth 21.25% 19.14% 15.00 - 25.00% Highland - Intl Value Renaissance - International Growth -SMID Cap. Value 5.00% 4.89% 2.50 - 7.50% Total Assets $723,428 Total Assets $1,005,529 -SMID Cap. Growth 5.00% 5.45% 2.50 - 7.50% Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees ($7,799) Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees ($57,419) -International Value 5.00% 4.96% 2.50 - 7.50% Fees ($914) Fees ($1,702) -International Growth 7.50% 6.90% 5.00 - 10.00% Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees ($8,712) Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees ($59,121) Total Equity 65.00% 63.87% 40.00 - 70.00% Fixed 25.00% 24.37% 20.00 - 35.00% Highland - Fixed Income Center Coast - MLP MLPs 5.00% 4.18% 0.00 - 10.00% Total Assets $3,550,598 Total Assets $608,456 Private Real Estate 5.00% 4.68% 0.00 - 10.00% Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees ($5,478) Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $53,783 Cash 0.00% 2.91% Fees ($4,456) Fees ($685) Total Portfolio 100.00% 100.00% Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees ($9,934) Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $53,098 Receipt & Disbursement Intercontinental - Private Real Estate Total Assets $424,139 Total Assets $681,630 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $1,504 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $22,454 Fees ($11,967) Fees ($1,783) Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees ($10,464) Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $20,671 The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 4 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System Graystone as of June 30, 2018 Consulting Breakdown of Returns Quarter 1.80 1.68 1.18 1.81 Fiscal Year to Date 4.64 3.99 3.55 5.41 Since 8/31/2017 7.65 6.98 5.37 NA Highland - Large Cap Growth Russell 000 Growth PSN Money Managers Quarter 5.45 5.32 5.76 4.17 Fiscal Year to Date 13.97 13.54 15.69 12.84 Since 8/31/2017 17.73 17.29 19.34 NA :. Quarter 2.65 2.12 00 Value PSN Money 5.80 Managers 3.35 Fiscal Year to Date 5.47 4.45 7.37 7.72 Since 8/31/2017 8.06 7.01 10.63 NA 00 Growth Quarter 1.69 1.49 5.53 4.56 Fiscal Year to Date 15.88 15.29 14.90 16.94 Since 8/31/2017 19.48 18.87 19.94 NA EQUITYINTERNATIONAL Highland - Intl Value Quarter (1.07) (1.19) MSCI EAFE (net) (1.24) Fiscal Year to Date 2.64 2.07 1.36 Since 8/31/2017 3.79 3.22 3.85 Quarter (5.40) (5.55) (2.61) Fiscal Year to Date (1.69) (2.13) 1.05 Quarter (0.15) (0.28) (0.16) Fiscal Year to Date (1.15) (1.66) (1.24) Quarter 9.69 9.56 11.80 Fiscal Year to Date (6.09) (6.43) (1.58) Since 8/31/2017 (8.90) (9.23) (5.79) The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 5 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of June 30, 2018 Breakdown of Returns Quarter 1.66 1.43 2.41 2.41 Fiscal Year to Date 4.33 3.69 5.21 5.21 1 Year 7.10 6.45 8.66 8.66 3 Year 6.67 5.97 7.55 7.99 5 Year 7.78 7.15 8.51 9.03 Since 1/31/2011 7.23 6.63 8.31 8.97 15 1 /2 Years 6.21 5.54 6.90 -% --�E Quarter 1.43 Actuary Rate 1.86 CP1 +4 1.54 Fiscal Year to Date 3.72 5.58 4.90 1 Year 6.48 7.45 7.05 3 Year 5.99 7.45 5.87 5 Year 7.13 7.45 5.53 Since 1/31/2011 6.69 7.45 5.74 Graystone Consulting Policy Index (1) Composition - 21.25% Russell 1000 Value / 21.25% Russell 1000 Growth / 5% Russell 2500 Value / 5% Russell 2500 Growth / 5% MSCI EAFE (net) / 7.5% MSCI AC Wd x US (net) / 25% BC Aggregate / 5% Alerian MLP / 5% NCREIF for periods since 7/31/2017 - 50% S&P 500 / 10% MSCI EAFE (net) / 40% BC Aggregate for periods since 12/31/2015 - 50% S&P 500 / 10% MSCI EAFE (net) / 40% BC Aggregate for periods since 6/30/2011 - 48% S&P 500 / 49% BC Gov/Credit / 3% Citi 3 Month T-Bill for periods prior to 6/30/2011 Policy Index (2) Composition - 21.25% Russell 1000 Value / 21.25% Russell 1000 Growth / 5% Russell 2500 Value / 5% Russell 2500 Growth / 5% MSCI EAFE (net) / 7.5% MSCI AC Wd x US (net) / 25% BC Aggregate / 5% Alerian MLP / 5% NCREIF for periods since 7/31/2017 - 60% S&P 500 / 40% BC Aggregate for periods since 12/31/2015 - 60% S&P 500 / 40% BC Aggregate for periods since 6/30/2011 - 48% S&P 500 / 49% BC Gov/Credit / 3% Citi 3 Month T-Bill for periods prior to 6/30/2011 The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 6 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of June 30, 2018 Trailing Returns Manager vs Benchmark: Return through June 2018 (not annualized if less than 1 year) Graystone Consulting 10 8— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - C: 6— — — — — — — — — — — — - - - - - - - - - - ■ Sebastian Police (Gross) N - - - - - - - - - ■ Sebastian Police (Net) a ■Sebastian Police Policy Index 2 0- 1 quarter 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 15 years 2 quarters Manager vs Benchmark: Return through June 2018 (not annualized If less than 1 year) Sebastian Police (Gross) Sebastian Police (Net) 1.66% 7.09% 6.66% 7.78% 6.14% 6.21 % 1.43% Sebastian Police Policy Index 2.41 % 6.41 % 5.95% 7.55% 7.14% 8.51% 5.50% 7.37% 5.54% 6.90% The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 7 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of June 30, 2018 Risk/Return - 5 Year Analysis 150 140 130 120 110 100 Q2 2D13 Manager Performance 20-Quarter Moving Windows, Computed Quarterly July 2013 - June 2018 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q2 20'18 Sebastian Police (Gross) —Sebastian Police (cross) —Sebastian Police Policy d.. Manager Risk/Return Single Computation July 2013 - June 2018 10% 8%- • E K 4%- 2°/ - ° 1 °/ 2% 3% 4% 5% Standard Deviation Return & Risk Measurements • Sebastian Police (Gross Market Benchmark: Sebastian Police Policy Index 0 Cash Equivalent: Citigroup 3-month T-bill 7.78% -0.73% 4.76% 1.00 -5.61 % 95.39% 123.61 % -0.68% 1.55 85.69% Sebastian Police Policy Index 8.51% 0.00% 4.40% 1.00 -4.22% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 1.84 100.00% The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 8 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of June 30, 2018 Risk/Return - 15 1/2 Year Analysis Manager Performance 20-Quarter Moving Windows, Computed Quarterly January 2003 - June 2018 300 250 200 150 100 Q4 2002 Q4 2005 Q4 2007 Q4 2009 Q4 2011 Q4 2013 Q4 2015 Q2 2M 8 Sebastian Police (Gross) Manager Risk/Return Single Computation January 2003 - June 2018 7% - 6%- • 5%- ` 4%- -Sebastian Pohce (Gross) —Sebastian Pohce Policy lnd- 3%- 2%- 1% 06% .. 1 j. Zo/, .. 30/. 40/, .. 50/. 60/, 70/. so/ Standard Deviation Return & Risk Measurements • Sebastian Police (Gross Market Benchmark: Sebastian Police Policy Index 0 Cash Equivalent: Citigroup 3-month T-bill 6.21 % -0.68% 7.36% 1.02-22.97% 96.89% 111.42% -0.76% 0.68 94.90% Sebastian Police Policy Index 6.90% 0.00% 7.03% 1.00-21.59% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.81 100.00% The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 9 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of June 30, 2018 Equity Portfolio Listed on recognized exchange Single issue not to exceed 5% at market value for each equity in each separately managed portfolio Total equity portfolio < 70.00% & > 40.00% of total fund at market Highland Capital Large Cap Value Larae Capitalization Value Eauitv Portfolio Market Value < 25.00% & > 15.00% of total fund Performance (Since 8/31/2017) Rank in the Top 50% of manager universe Return > Russell 1000 Value Highland Capital Larae Cap Growth Larae Capitalization Growth Eauitv Portfolio Market Value < 25.00% & > 15.00% of total fund Performance (Since 8/31/2017) Rank in the Top 50% of manager universe Return > Russell 1000 Growth Boston Partners SMID Cap Value SMID Capitalization Value Eauitv Portfolio Market Value < 7.50% & > 2.50% of total fund Performance (Since 8/31/2017) Rank in the Top 50% of manager universe Return > Russell Mid Value Fiera Capital SMID Cat) Growth SMID Capitalization Growth Eauitv Portfolio Market Value < 7.50% & > 2.50% of total fund Performance (Since 8/31/2017) Rank in the Top 50% of manager universe Return > Russell Mid Growth Highland Capital International Value International Value Eauitv Portfolio Market Value < 7.50% & > 2.50% of total fund Performance (Since 8/31/2017) Return > MSCI EAFE (Net) Graystone Consulting IPS Compliance Check List OBJECTIVES Total Portfolio 5 years Since Inceotion Yes Exceed Target Index No No Yes Exceed Target Rate of Return (7.45%)* No No Exceed CPI + 4% * Yes Yes Yes *Performance compared to dollar -weighted net returns Renaissance International Growth International Growth Portfolio Yes Market Value < 10.00% & > 5.00% of total fund Yes 3 years Since Inception Performance (Since 8/31/2017) 5 years Since Inception N/A Yes Return > MSCI World Ex US (Net) N/A No N/A Yes Highland Fixed Income Fixed Income Portfolio Yes Market Value < 35.00% & > 20.00% of total fund Yes 3 years Since Inception Performance (Since 3/31/2014) 3 years Since Inception N/A No Return > BC Agg N/A Yes N/A No U.S. Government / Agency or U.S. Corporations Yes Bonds rated "A" or better Yes Single corporate issuer not exceed 10% of bond portfolio Yes (except U.S. Government/Agency) Yes 3 years Since Inception Center Coast MLPs N/A No Master Limited Partnerships N/A No Market Value < 10.00% & > 0.00% of total fund Yes Performance (Since 8/31/2017) 5 years Since Inception Return > Alerian MLP N/A No Yes Intercontinental 5 years Since Inception Core Private Real Estate N/A No Market Value < 10.00% & > 0.00% of total fund Yes N/A No Performance (Inception 10/31/2017) 3 years Since Inception Return > NCREIF Property Index N/A Yes Return > NCREIF ODCE Index N/A Yes Return > BC Agg Index N/A Yes Yes 3 years Since Inception N/A No The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 10 Tactical Asset Allocation Reasoning Global Equities Relative Weights US Equal Weight US equities have done exceptionally well since the global financial crisis, but they are now in the latter stages of a cyclical bull market. While the acceleration of the Trump/Republican progrowth agenda has created a booming economy and earnings outlook, it may also be sowing the seeds for the end of the cycle as the Fed is forced to raise rates and tighten policy in a more deliberate manner. International Equities (Developed Overweight Markets) We maintain a positive bias for Japanese and European equity markets. The populist movements around the world are now spreading to Italy which may spur further fiscal support from Germany and France. This would be a potential positive catalyst but not likely to develop until September. Emerging market (EM) equities have been the best region over the past 24 months but are underperforming so far in 2018. Some of this is simply the result of a Emerging Markets Overweight market that needs to consolidate spectacular gains the past few years. However, it is also directly related to the Fed's tightening campaign. We expect EM to find support not far from current levels and have a strong finish to the year. Global Fixed Income US Investment Grade Underweight We have recommended shorter -duration (maturities) since March 2013 given the extremely low yields and potential capital losses associated with rising interest rates from such low levels. While interest rates have remained exceptionally low, US economic data have been very strong recently and the Fed is now raising rates at an accelerating pace. Adding some longer duration when 10-year US Treasury yield is above 3% makes sense. International Investment Grade Underweight Yields are even lower outside the US, leaving very little value in international fixed income, particularly as the global economy begins to recover more broadly. While interest rates are likely to stay low, the offsetting diversification benefits do not warrant much, if any, position, in our view. With deflationary fears having become extreme in 2015 and early 2016, these securities still offer relative value in the context of our forecasted acceleration in Inflation -Protected Securities Overweight global growth and our expectations for oil prices and the US dollar's year -over- year rate of change to revert back toward 0%. That view played out in 2016 and 2017 but has not yet run its course. High yield has performed exceptionally well since early 2016 with the stabilization in oil prices and retrenchment by the weaker players. We recently took our High Yield Underweight remaining high yield positions to zero as we prepare for deterioration in quality of earnings in the US led by lower operating margins. Credit spreads have likely reached a low for this cycle. Alternative Investments Real estate investment trusts (REITs) have underperformed global equities since mid-2016 when interest rates bottomed. We think it is still too early to reconsider Real Estate/REITS Underweight our underweight zero allocation given the further rise in rates we expect and deteriorating fundamentals for the industry. Non -US REITs should be favored relative to domestic REITs. Master Limited Partnerships/Energy Overweight Infrastructure Master limited partnerships (MLPs) have traded better since their capitulation in March around the FERC regulatory announcement. With oil prices much more stable and on an upward path, MLPs have garnered more interest given their 8%-to-10% yields. Hedged Strategies (Hedge Funds and Equal Weight Managed Futures) This asset category can provide uncorrelated exposure to traditional risk -asset markets. It tends to outperform when traditional asset categories are challenged by growth scares and/or interest rate volatility spikes. As volatility becomes more persistent in 2018, these strategies should do better than in recent years. Page