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HomeMy WebLinkAbout3rd QuarterGrayst ne Consulting QUNRTER] IN RERFOR.M.K.NGE. Scott Owens, CFAI, CI AI Associate Vice President Institutional Consultant U..MM NRY Prepaxed for: .As of Septeinber 30, 201.8 Graystone Consulting Tampa Charles H. Mulfinger, 11, CIMA" Managing Director, Wealth Managemen) Institutional Consulting Director Alternative Investment Director 100 North Tampa Street, Suite 3000 Tampa, FL 33602 Rnn-?R?-n6,)') ext. 2061 / 813-227-2061 David A. Wheeler, CFP1, CI AI Senior Vice President Institutional Consulting Director Institutional Consultant Three Years Five Years Seven Years Quarter 12 Months (annualized) (annualized) (annualized) S&P 500Index 7.71 17.91 17.31 13.95 16.91 Dow Jones Industrial Average 9.63 20.76 20.49 14.57 16.35 Russell1000index 7.42 17.77 17.07 13.67 16.90 Russell 1000 Growth Index 9.17 26.30 20.55 16.58 18.69 Russell 1000 Value Index 5.70 9.45 13.55 10.72 15.02 Russell 2000 index 3.58 15.24 17.12 11.07 16.43 Russell 2000 Growth Index 5.52 21.06 17.98 12.14 17.52 Russell 2000 Value Index 1.61 9.33 16.12 9.92 15.26 Russell 3000 Index 7.13 17.58 17.07 13.46 16.86 Russell 3000 Growth Index 8.88 25.89 20.36 16.23 18.60 Russell 3000 Value Index 5.39 9.46 13.75 10.65 15.04 Russell Midcap Index 5.00 13.98 14.52 11.65 16.09 Russell Midcap Growth Index 7.58 21.10 16.65 13.00 16.87 Russell Midcap Value Index 3.30 8.81 13.09 10.72 15.54 Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Source: MAX ee ® e Quarter Health Care 14.50 Industrials 10.00 Communication Services 9.90 Technology 8.80 Consumer Discretionary 8.20 Consumer Staples 5.70 Financials 4.40 Utilities 2.40 Real Estate 0.90 Energy 0.60 Materials 0.40 Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Source: MAX Page 1 /' /i, ti�a)re'- eE4Eijulk `6ReEifFHfif4fk."eP�: -� �,l��efn ", tip.. 4- iii Dollar Regional and Other Multi Country Indices MSCI EAFE 1.36 2.74 2.42 5.62 MSCI Europe 0.80 (0.30) 1.24 2.66 MSCI Far East 3.15 9.45 5.32 10.33 MSCI Pacific ex. Japan (0.55) 4.27 0.66 9.62 MSCI The World 5.10 11.84 N/A N/A MSCI World ex. U.S. 1.31 2.67 2.13 5.65 National Indices MSCI Hong Kong (0.95) 2.89 (1.19) 3.07 MSCI Ireland (5.34) (5.72) N/A N/A MSCI Japan 3.81 10.57 6.46 11.57 MSCI Singapore 2.19 6.96 2.40 7.63 Past Performance is not a guarantee offuture results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Source: MAX /iiii rr f„viii„Pn4'04 Entlin Dollar Quarter 12 Months Quarter 12 Months Regional and Other Multi Country Indices MSCI EM (0.95) (0.44) 0.11 3.03 National Indices MSCI China (7.42) (2.05) (7.56) (1.83) MSCI Malaysia 3.81 7.61 (7.56) (1.83) MSCI Taiwan 7.15 10.67 7.31 11.43 MSCI Thailand 13.72 15.50 13.72 15.50 Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Source: MAX Page 2 e e Three Years Five Years 10Years Quarter 12 Months (annualized) (annualized) (annualized) U.S. Fixed Income 90-Day Treasury Bill 0.50 1.57 0.80 0.49 0.32 Barclays Capital Aggregate 0.02 (1.22) 1.31 2.16 3.77 Barclays Capital Credit 0.89 (1.10) 2.98 3.40 5.94 Barclays Capital Govt/Credit 0.06 (1.37) 1.45 2.23 3.95 Barclays Capital Government (0.57) (1.57) 0.26 1.34 2.66 Barclays Capital High Yield 2.40 3.05 8.15 5.55 9.46 Barclays Capital IntermediateGovt/Credit 0.21 (0.96) 0.91 1.52 3.22 Barclays Capital Long Govt/Credit (0.47) (2.73) 3.43 5.18 7.11 Barclays Capital Mortgage Backed (0.12) (0.92) 0.98 2.02 3.33 Barclays Capital Municipal (0.15) 0.35 2.24 3.54 4.75 Global Fixed Income Merrill Lynch Global High Yield 2.01 1.25 7.86 4.78 9.24 Barclays Global Treasury ex. U.S. (1.66) (1.68) 2.44 (0.20) 2.35 Barclays Capital Majors ex. U.S. (2.56) (1.55) 2.17 (0.34) 2.08 Past Performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Source: MAX Page 3 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of September 30, 2018 Quarterly Summary of Relevant Facts Eguit Lame Cap Value $3,480,884 Lar e Cap. Growth $3,240,361 -SMID Cap. Value $743,288 -S MID Cap. Growth .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... $838,517 -International Value $761,476 -International Growth $1,143,884 Total Egwty $10,208,411 Fixed .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... $3,548,783 MLPs $648,364 Private Real Estate .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... $691,372 Cash 70 390 Total Portfolio $15,167,320 Egwty Breakdown Lar e Cap. Value 21.25% 22.95% 15.00 - 25.00% Lame Cap Growth 21 25% 21 36% 15.00 25.00% -SMID Cap. Value .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5.00% 4.90% 2.50 - 7.50% SMID Cap Growth 5.00% 5„53% 2 50 7 50%.. -International Value .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5.00% 5.02% 2.50 - 7.50% nternational Growth 7 50% 7 54% 5.00 - 10.00% Total Equity65 00 / 67,31 / 40 00 70.00% Fixed 25.00% 23.40% 20.00-35.00% MLPs .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5.00 % 4.27 % 0.00 - 10.00% Private Real Estate 5.00% 4.56% 0.00- 10.00% Cash 0.00% 0.46% Total Portfolio 100.00% 100.00% Other Important Facts: Total Portfolio Total Gam/(Loss) - Gross -of -Fees Total Fees Total Gam/(Loss) - Net -of -Fees Highland - Large Cap Value Total Assets Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees Fees Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees Boston Partners - SMID Value Total Assets Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees Fees Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees Highland - Intl Value Total Assets Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees Fees Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees Highland - Fixed Income Total Assets Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees Fees Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees Receipt & Disbursement Total Assets Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees Fees Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees Graystone Consulting $15,167,320 $560,318 ($26,570) $533,748 Highland - Large Cap Growth $3,480,884 Total Assets $3,240,361 $202,562 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $218,566 ($4,065) Fees ($3,455) $198,497 Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $215,111 Fiera Capital - SMID Growth $743,288 Total Assets $838,517 $4,328 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $46,864 ($1,784) Fees ($1,488) $2,544 Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $45,376 Renaissance - International Growth $761,476 Total Assets $1,143,884 $13,172 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $9,289 ($896) Fees ($1,632) $12,276 Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $7,658 Center Coast - MLP $3,548,783 Total Assets $648,364 $2,857 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $41,038 ($4,405) Fees ($758) ($1,548) Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $40,280 Intercontinental - Private Real Estate $70,390 Total Assets $691,372 $1,042 Gain or (Loss) - Gross -of -Fees $20,600 ($6,285) Fees ($1,802) ($5,243) Gain or (Loss) - Net -of -Fees $18,798 The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 4 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System Graystone as of September 30, 2018 Consulting Breakdown of Returns Quarter 6.18 6.05 5.70 5.46 Fiscal Year to Date 11.10 10.28 9.45 11.01 Since 7/31/2017 12.14 11.43 9.72 NA Quarter 7.64 7.50 9.17 7.79 Fiscal Year to Date 22.67 22.06 26.30 21.58 Since 7/31/2017 22.51 21.98 25.57 NA Quarter 0.68 0.44 2.67 2.96 Fiscal Year to Date 6.19 4.91 10.24 9.78 Since 7/31/2017 7.49 6.38 11.59 NA Quarter 5.91 5.72 7.17 6.94 Fiscal Year to Date 22.73 21.88 23.13 26.45 Since 7/31/2017 22.35 21.63 24.12 NA IIIN IIIII p ,,,, I (IIIIIII IIIIIII r �� U .IIIII �� n, uu II I I� IIIIIIIIIII. II ................................................................... V .. ,,..V.. Quarter 1.83 1.71 1.36 Fiscal Year to Date 4.52 3.82 2.74 Since 7/31/2017 4.86 4.25 4.51 Quarter 0.91 0.76 0.71 Fiscal Year to Date (0.80) (1.40) 1.76 Since 7/31/2017 0.37 (0.15) 3.60 IIIIIII I�IIIIIIVIIIIII II IIIIIIIIIIIII II (IIIIIII QuarterI� 0.08 (0.04) 0.02 Fiscal Year to Date (1.07) (1.71) (1.22) Since 7/31/2017 (0.57� (1.12) (0.69) I IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII�II�IIIIIIII�II�IIIIII�II�II161111II�III�III�IIIIIIIII�IIIIII i III II Illllulllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllliulllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll� li IIIII IIII III IIII Quarter 6.75 6.62 6.57 Fiscal Year to Date 0.25 (0.23) 4.89 Since 7/31/2017 (2.37) (2.77) 0.34 The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 5 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of September 30, 2018 Breakdown of Returns Graystone Consulting Quarter 2.79 2.52 1.67 2.09 0.02 Fiscal Year to Date 12.18 11.00 7.16 (1.22) (1.22) Since 9/30/2017 12.18 11.00 7.16 8.68 (1.22) r IIIII III IIIIIIIIIIIII VI dluuu I IIIIImI i uuulllllll III III � � � ... .... .... II IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIll II II IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII II II IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII . � r ..,;. Quarter 3.84 3.65 4.18 4.18 Fiscal Year to Date 8.33 7.56 9.61 9.61 1 Year 8.33 7.56 9.61 9.61 3 Year 9.95 9.30 10.43 10.73 5 Year 8.01 7.38 8.55 9.20 Since 1/31/2011 7.51 6.92 8.61 9.25 15 1/2 Years 6.37 5.70 7.06 r IIIII uu III 61M'�uuuuuu u l l uuuuuuu l i IIIIIIIII IIIIIIIII IIIIIIIII III II IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Quarter 3.64 1.86 1..47.......................:...............................:........................ Fiscal Year to Date 7.60 5.58 6.44 1 Year 7.60 7.45 6.44 3 Year 9.28 145 6.07 5 Year 7.38 7.45 5.54 Since 1/31/2011 6.98 7.45 5.75 Policy Index (1) Composition - 21.25% Russell 1000 Value / 21.25% Russell 1000 Growth / 5% Russell 2500 Value / 5% Russell 2500 Growth / 5% MSCI EAFE (net) / 7.5% MSCI AC Wd x US (net) / 25% BC Aggregate / 5% Alerian MLP / 5% NCREIF for periods since 7/31/2017 50% S&P 500 / 10% MSCI EAFE (net) / 40% BC Aggregate for periods since 12/31/2015 50% S&P 500 / 10% MSCI EAFE (net) / 40% BC Aggregate for periods since 6/30/2011 48% S&P 500 / 49% BC Gov/Credit / 3% Citi 3 Month T-Bill for periods prior to 6/30/2011 Policy Index (2) Composition - 21.25% Russell 1000 Value / 21.25% Russell 1000 Growth / 5% Russell 2500 Value / 5% Russell 2500 Growth / 5% MSCI EAFE (net) / 7.5% MSCI AC Wd x US (net) / 25% BC Aggregate / 5% Alerian MLP / 5% NCREIF for periods since 7/31/2017 60% S&P 500 / 40% BC Aggregate for periods since 12/31/2015 60% S&P 500 / 40% BC Aggregate for periods since 6/30/2011 48% S&P 500 / 49% BC Gov/Credit / 3% Citi 3 Month T-Bill for periods prior to 6/30/2011 The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 6 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System 'Graystione as of September 30, 2018Consulting Trailing Returns Manager vs Benchmark: Return through September 2018 (not annualized if less than 1 year) 12 1 • Sebastian Polic- -------------- Sebastian Police Policy Index 1 quarter 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 15 years 3 quarters Manager vs Benchmark: Return through September 2018 1 meter 1;Yyear i -, „'" 'iiii � y� ...... Sebastian Police (Net) 3.65% 7.56% 9.29% 7.39% 6.53% 5.70% Sebastian Police Policy Index 4.18% 9.61 % 10.43% 8.55% 8.32% 7.06% The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 7 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of September 30, 2018 Risk/Return - 5 Year Analysis Manager Performance 20-Quarter Moving Windows, Computed Quarterly October 2013 - September 2018 150 - 140------ 130-___________________________________ 120------------------------------------ - ---------------------------- Manager Risk/Return Single Computation October 2013 - September 2018 10i 8%- 6%- 2%- 100 _____ m, Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 04 2016 Q3 2018 Standard Deviation Return & Risk Measurements 0ctober2013-September2018 Summary Statistics • Sebas➢an Police (cross) Market Benchnerk Sebas➢an Police Policy Inez Cash Equivalent Ci➢group 3r,orrh T-dll Sebastian Police (Gross) 8.01% -0.54% 4.82% 1.02 -5.60% 97.43% 123.31% -0.64% 1.56 87.15% Sebastian Police Policy Index 8.55% 0.00% 4.42% 1.00 -4.22% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 1.82 100.00% The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 8 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of September 30, 2018 Risk/Return - 15 3/4 Year Analysis Manager Performance 20-Quarter Moving Windows, Computed Quarterly January 2003 - September 2018 3aa zsa------------------------- _________,`_ .0--______________________!— isa____________ _______ \/ � B 1aa1`__________________________________ Q42002 Q42005 Q4= CH 2003 Q42011 Q42013 Q42015 Q32C18 Manager Risk/Return Single Computatim January 2003 - September 2018 8',:, 7% 1( • 6% 5%- • Sebas➢an Pal— (Crass) 4% _ Market Benchnerk Sebas➢an Pal— Pohcy nas. Cash Equivalent Crtgroup 3-n—h T-dll 3% 2%- 1% 01/o 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7`6 8% Standard Deviation Return & Risk Measurements January 2003 - September 2018 Summary Statistics Sebastian Police (Gross) 6.37% -0.69% 7.32% 1.02-22.97% 96.75% 111.38% -0.77% 0.70 94.93% Sebastian Police Policy Index 7.06% 0.00% 7.00% 1.00-21.59% 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.83 100.00% The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 9 City of Sebastian Police Officers' Retirement System as of September 30, 2018 IPS Compliance Check List Graystone Consulting llld rlrlrlMlm nc d � � "�iilll �I Mhi ��� o ��� i i i i iu uuuuu uuuuuuuum ..... ollrtfollioll Total P �IIIVd���S 5years Inception =tv Portfolio E Yes Exceed Index d Tar No No Listed on recognized exchange Yes Exceed Target Rate of Return (7.45°l%y No No Single issue not to exceed 5% at market value for Yes Yes each equity in each separately managed portfolio Exceed CPI + 4%' -Performance compared to dollar -weighted net returns Total equity portfolio < 70.00% & > 40.00% of total fund Yes at market Hiahland Capital Larae Cap Value, Large Caoitalization Value Eauity Portfolio Market Value < 25.00% & > 15.00% of total fund Performance (Since 8/31/2017) Rank in the Top 50% of manager universe Return > Russell 1000 Value Hiahland Capital Laroe Cap Growth Large Caoitalization Growth Eauity Portfolio Market Value < 25.00% & > 15.00% of total fund Performance (Since 813112017) Rank in the Top 50% of manager universe Return > Russell 1000 Growth Boston Partners SMID Cap Value, SMID Caoitalization Value Eouitv Portfolio Market Value < 7.50% & > 2.50% of total fund Performance (Since 8/31/2017) Rank in the Top 50% of manager universe Return > Russell Mid Value Fiera Capital SMID Cap Growth SMID Caoitalization Growth Eouitv Portfolio Market Value < 7.50% & > 2.50% of total fund Performance (Since 8/31/2017) Rank in the Top 50% of manager universe Return > Russell Mid Growth Hiahland Capital International Value, International Value Eouitv Portfolio Market Value < 7.50% & > 2.50% of total fund Performance (Since 8/31/2017) Return > MSCI EAFE (Net) Renaissance International Growth. International Growth Portfolio Yes Market Value < 10.00% & > 5.00% of total fund Yes 3 years Since Inception Performance (Since 8/31/2017) 5 years Sire Inception No NIA Yes Return > MSCI World Ex US (Net) N/A N/A Yes Hiahland Fixed Income Fixed Income Portfolio Yes Market Value < 35.00% & > 20.00% of total fund Yes 3 years Since Inception Performance (Since 3/31/2014) 3 years Since Inception Yes N/A No Return > BC Agg N/A NIA No U.S. Government / Agency or U.S. Corporations Yes Bonds rated "A" or better Yes Single corporate issuer not exceed 10% of bond portfolio Yes (except U.S. Government/Agency) Yes s years Since Inception Center Coast MLPs N/A No Master LimitedPartnershiDS N/A No Market Value < 10.00% & > 0.00% of total fund Yes Performance (Since 8131/2017) 5 years Since Inception Return > Alerian MLP N/A No Yes Intercontinental 5 years Since Inception Core Private Real Estate, Market Value < 10.00% & > 0.00% of total fund Yes N/A NIA No No Performance (Inception 10/31/2017) 3 years Since Inception Return > NCREIF Property Index N/A Yes Return > NCREIF ODCE Index NIA Yes Return > BC Agg Index N/A Yes Yes 3 years since Incention N/A Yes The prices, quotes, or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Page 10 Tactical Asset Allocation Reasoning Q:ullap "fill III!!: i.I1II1I ', US International Equities (Developed Markets) Emerging Markets US Investment Grade International Investment Grade Inflation -Protected Securities High Yield A 1111111 %¢rIII irV11WIII I, Real Estate/REITS Master Limited Partnerships/Energy Infrastructure Hedged Strategies (Hedge Funds and Managed Futures) Relative Weights US equities have done exceptionally well since the global financial crisis, but they are now in the latter stages of a cyclical bull market. While the acceleration ofthe Equal Weight Trump/Republican progrowth agenda has created a booming economy and earnings outlook, it may also be sowing the seeds for the end of the cycle as the Fed is forced to raise rates and tighten policy in a more deliberate manner. With the exceptional run in growth and small -cap stocks, we recently reduced positions in both and favor large -cap value stocks. Overweight We maintain a positive bias for Japanese and European equity markets. The populist movements around the world are now spreading to Italy, which may spur further fiscal support from Germany and France. This would be a potential positive catalyst but not likely to develop until September. Emerging market (EM) equities have been the strongest -performing region over the past 24 months but are underperforming so far in 2018. Some ofthis is simply Overweight the result of a market that needs to consolidate strong gains the past few years. However, it is also directly related to the Fed's tightening campaign. We expect EM to find support not far from current levels and have a strong finish to the year. Underweight We have recommended shorter -duration (maturities) since March 2013, given the extremely low yields and potential capital losses associated with rising interest rates from such low levels. While interest rates have remained exceptionally low, US economic data have been very strong recently and the Fed is now raising rates at an accelerating pace. Adding some longer duration when 10-year US Treasury yields are above 3% makes sense. Underweight Yields are even lower outside the US, leaving very little value in international fixed income, particularly as the global economy begins to recover more broadly. While interest rates are likely to stay low, the offsetting diversification benefits do not warrant much, if any, position, in ourview. With deflationary fears having become extreme in 2015 and early 2016, these securities still offer relative value in the context of our forecasted acceleration in Overweight global growth and our expectations for oil prices and the US dollar's year -over -year rate of change to revert toward 0%. That view played out in 2016 and 2017 but has not yet run its course. High yield has performed exceptionally well since early 2016 with the stabilization in oil prices and retrenchment by the weaker players. We recently took our Underweight remaining high yield positions to zero as we prepare for deterioration in quality of earnings in the US led by lower operating margins. Credit spreads have likely reached a low for this cycle. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) have underperformed global equities since mid-2016 when interest rates bottomed. We think it is still too early to reconsider Underweight our underweight zero allocation given the further rise in rates we expect and deteriorating fundamentals for the industry. Non -US REITs should be favored relative to domestic REITs. Overweight Master limited partnerships (MLPs) have traded better since their capitulation in March around the FERC regulatory announcement. With oil prices much more stable and on an upward path, MLPs have garnered more interest given their 8%to 10%yields. Equal Weight This asset category can provide uncorrelated exposure to traditional risk -asset markets. It tends to outperform when traditional asset categories are challenged by growth scares and/or interest rate volatility spikes. As volatility becomes more persistent in 2018, these strategies should do better than in recent years. Page 11