Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutChapter 3 - Forecast of Aviation Activity I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY OJ'IOI S~}3.fi:S"JJJ:l!\' ,-----.r "'.'~~. . ~,--~~ HOME or pr.u..AN I.'RANO I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update (Irrer SlBASTIAN ~-' -- /~., -~~~~ ,---- HOME Of rwCAN tslAND Chapter Three - Forecast of Aviation Activity AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS This chapter establishes the forecast levels of aviation activity that will be used as a basis of analysis in successive chapters of this study. Aviation activity forecasts provide the benchmark against which the adequacy of existing airport facilities are evaluated. These forecasts will replace the projections presented in the 1993 Master Plan. To adequately identify the future needs of the airport, a number of projections are necessary. In this chapter, the following elements are analyzed and subsequent projections prepared. Based Aircraft + Single-Engine + Multi - Engine (piston and turboprop) + Jet + Rotor Aircraft Operations + General Aviation + Local/Itinerant + Instrument + Military Peak Activity + Peak Month + Average Day Peak Month + Peak Hour The standard planning period for an airport master plan is 20 years. Thus, these forecasts, for the Sebastian Municipal Airport, are presented for the years 2007, 2012, and 2022. The development of forecasts in this chapter also includes analyses of historical data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and socioeconomic data from the State of Florida. This data has been supplemented with interviews of airport management and airport tenants. The forecast for Sebastian Municipal Airport will optimize two methods of forecasting: trend analysis and judgmental forecasting. Trend analysis is the most widely used method of forecasting and optimizes the use of dependent and independent variables. Judgmental forecasting is typically used to support trend analysis and consists of establishing estimated characteristics of what lies in the future. This form is commonly used in place of trend analysis when historical data is limited. In extreme cases, judgmental forecasting may be the only way to create realistic projections of an airport's future activity. Previous Aviation Activity Forecasts In the recent past, three separate aviation activity forecasts have been prepared for the Airport. These studies include the 1993 Airport Master Plan, FAA's Terminal Area Forecast, and the Florida Aviation System Plan. 2002 3-1 I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update (Irrer SlBASTY\N ~~ .,..r''' -- ~'-.'" -- HOME Of PEllCAN ISlAND I I Although new forecasts are generated as part of this Master Plan Update, data contained in previous studies typically proves valuable for comparison purposes. Previous Airport Master Plan I The last master plan developed for Sebastian was completed in 1993. This study included forecasts, which were also projected for a twenty-year planning period. The number of based aircraft and total annual operations projected in the 1993 Master Plan are shown in Table 3-1. Although the forecast of this study will replace the figures from the previous Master Plan, they have been included to compare the outlook for the Airport in 1993 with that of today. As such, these forecasts have been extrapolated out to the year 2022 to provide a basis of comparison with the forecasts generated later in this study. I I I TABLE 3-1 1993 MASTER PLAN FORECASTS Year Local Itinerant Annual Operations Base Year 1991 48,820 19,940 68,760 Forecast 1995 59,846 21,222 81,068 2000 73,015 23,305 96,320 2005 87,921 25,649 113,570 2010 105,047 28,250 133,297 Extrapolated (by LP A) 2022 159,571 42,912 202,483 Source: 1993 Sebastian Municipal Airport, Community Capability Study and Master Plan I I I I The 1993 Airport Master Plan projected an average annual growth rate of 3.5 percent for combined annual operations. While this may have been an accepted growth rate at the time of the 1993 study, the Airport has never attained this level of operations. In fact, the levels recorded in 1999 are significantly less than the activity in 1991. In the previous Master Plan there was no mention of based aircraft in the forecast section; however, the facilities requirement section stated that the 1991 level of 40 based aircraft would grow to 60 by the end of the planning period. This represented an average annual growth rate of 2.2 percent, which unlike the operations forecast, appears to have been more accurate with respect to the current number of based aircraft. I I I I FAA Terminal Area Forecasts Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) are prepared by the FAA to meet the planning needs of their offices concerned with future traffic levels at the nation's airport facilities. Except for specific regional or state requests, the airports included in the FAA's TAF report must meet at least one of the following criteria: I I + + + + Have an existing FAA tower. Have an existing FAA Contract tower. Candidate for a FAA tower. Currently receiving or expected to receIve scheduled air carrIer or regional/commuter service. Currently exceed 60,000 itinerant or 100,000 total aircraft operations. + I 2002 I 3-2 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update (Irrer SlBAST~ ~-' .. r-..::;: --:-~ -, -._- HOME Of ffi.JCAN tS1ANo + Reported 10 or more based aircraft on the latest available Airport Master Record (FAA 5010 Form). Forecasts in the FAA TAF are calculated using a number of methods. Typically projections are calculated using regression analysis with various national economic indicators as the independent variables; however, the data provided in the TAF for Sebastian does not show the projected level of operations changing. Table 3-2 depicts the figures contained in the 1999 TAF for Sebastian Municipal Airport. TABLE 3-2 FAA TERMINAL AREA FORECAST Year Annual Operations Based Aircraft Base Year 1991 94,732 50 Forecast 1995 94,732 50 2000 94,732 50 2005 94,732 50 2010 94,732 50 Source: 1999 FAA Termmal Area Forecast As with the annual operations, the number of based aircraft is not projected to increase during the planning period. While the TAF is updated annually, the values obtained from this source unfortunately do not reflect current trends on the airfield. Florida Aviation System Plan The statewide system of airports is vitally important to the quality of life and economic well being of Florida's citizens. As such, the Florida Aviation System Plan (FASP) is a broad blueprint that guides the development of Florida's public airports. This plan is necessary to ensure that airports work together effectively as a statewide transportation system, provide a link to the global air transportation network, and effectively interface with regional surface transportation. The latest version of the F ASP (1992-2010) was based on data collected up to and including 1990. Because the base data is now ten years old, it is considered out of date and no longer valuable as a planning tool. Currently, the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) is in the process of updating these forecasts. Because this update is occurring at the same time as this study, the final projections for Sebastian Municipal Airport were not available. Therefore, no figures from the F ASP have been included in this study. FORECASTING ApPROACH A key element in the forecast process is the identification of the potential for new or expanded service by existing airport users, as well as the potential for the Airport to secure new service and users. This section addresses potential changes in the region's demographics, including characteristics of the community and business patterns. This is done to identify potentially significant factors that explain and impact the level of aviation activity at Sebastian Municipal Airport. 2002 3-3 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update (Irrer SlBAST~ ~ ~~~ HOMI Of PUJC.AN ISlAND To represent the Airport market area, various economic indices for Indian River County were considered in the forecast analysis. This data was derived from the 1999 Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast, which is prepared by the University of Florida. A section related to the socioeconomic trends of Indian River County was included as part of the inventory chapter. This section contains specific data related to population, per capita income, and employment/unemployment. In addition, construction indicators and the level of retail sales were also analyzed. Initially, this data would have been used to develop both linear and multiple regression models for the future aircraft and activity levels at the Airport. However, due to the lack of reliable historical data for the airport, such models could not be generated. As a result, the judgmental forecasting approach was implemented. FORECASTING CONSIDERATIONS Two of the primary considerations that can influence the forecasts for an airfield include historical factors and industry trends. By analyzing these elements, it is possible to make a determination of the types and level of operations that can be expected to occur. Historical Factors Although no reliable historical data is available for based aircraft or operations, an investigation of the Airport's past activity was conducted. This was achieved primarily through airport management interviews, tenant interviews, City records, and background research on the airfield. Traditionally, Sebastian Municipal has served only general aviation since 1959 when the federal government dedicated the prior naval training facility to the City of Sebastian. According to interviews, the types of aircraft based at the Airport have been primarily single-engine and multi-engine (piston and turboprop). While there have been occasional small jet operations conducted at Sebastian, there is no evidence of jet aircraft or rotorcraft being based on the field. As with the type of based aircraft, activity at Sebastian has primarily been limited to single and multi-engine aircraft operations. While on occasion there have been other types of operations, such as military aircraft or jets, these are very limited. There has never been any air carrier or regularly scheduled service. Industry Trends Trends related to the general aviation industry can help in the evaluation of future aviation growth at the Airport. During the late 1980s and early 1990s, the general aviation industry experienced a severe downturn due to the recession in the early 1990s coupled with product liability considerations in the light aircraft manufacturing industry. The overall decrease in the nation's general aviation activity during this time was due to significant increases in the cost to own a general aviation aircraft, which was due primarily to the increasing product liability, as well as increased operating costs. Unfortunately, this period ultimately forced the closure of nearly every manufacturer of general aviation piston aircraft. Legislators responded to the severe downturn with the passage of the General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994. The signing of this act has provided a renewed era of optimism for the general aviation market, which has led to a turnaround in the industry. After passage of the General Aviation Revitalization Act, two of the largest manufacturers of small aircraft resumed production in the general aviation market. The Cessna Aircraft Corporation reentered the single-engine piston aircraft market for the first time since 1986. Also, the New Piper Aircraft Corporation emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection to restart and increase its production schedule. In time, other aircraft manufacturers and aviation suppliers also began hiring and expanding their production. Overall, revitalization of the industry has had a positive effect on the number of active general aviation aircraft and the operations these aircraft conduct in the United States. This has been significantly facilitated by the strong 2002 3-4 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update (Irrer SlBAST!AN ~'-' ,. .'- ""! ... '. -cc _. . HOME Of PUJCAN ISlAND national economy since the mid 1990s. In addition to the TAF, the FAA also publishes an annual report of forecasts for aviation activity as a whole for the nation. The most recent edition of this report, F AA Aviation Forecasts, includes the fiscal years 2000 through 2011. In this edition the FAA states, "With five years worth of data compiled, the success of the Act (General Aviation Revitalization Act) can be measured. Resurgence is evidenced by increasing general aviation activity at FAA air traffic facilities, an increasing active fleet size, and record shipments and billings of fixed-wing general aviation aircraft." BASED AIRCRAFT The forecast of based aircraft at a general aviation airport is necessary to properly plan the appropriate aircraft parking and hangar facilities required. Projections of based aircraft also provide a significant indication as to anticipated growth in activity that is expected to occur at the Airport. Historical Based Aircraft In order to forecast the number of based aircraft, a reliable source for historic levels must be obtained. While the T AF typically provides a history of aircraft based at an airport, the initial source of this information comes from the FAA Airport Master Records (5010 Form). At Sebastian, this form is typically updated by FDOT during their annual field inspection for state licensing. As such, it is important to note that the based aircraft counts for these inspections can vary significantly and often provides the only source for historical based aircraft data. Unfortunately, this source has never changed from levels recorded in the mid 1980s (refer to Table 2-4). As such, only the based aircraft counts conducted as part of this study's inventory are considered reliable. These counts resulted in 32 single-engine and 10 multi-engine aircraft for a total of 42 based aircraft in 2000. Forecast of Based Aircraft As noted previously, the TAF projected the number of based aircraft to remain constant. While there may be times that the level of based aircraft at an airport could remain static or even decrease slightly, this would only be probable on a temporary basis, due to recent general aviation industry trends. Nonetheless, even if the T AF had a realistic forecast for based aircraft, the methodology does not take into consideration issues on the local level. For example, no consideration is given to the City of Sebastian's plan for the construction ofT-hangars, larger c1earspan hangars, or other factors that may increase the number of based aircraft. It is assumed that the number of based aircraft has a direct relationship to both population and income. The logic behind this correlation is that as population increases, the number of aircraft owners or those planning to purchase an aircraft also increases. Likewise, as the level of income for an area increases, the opportunity for more individuals to own aircraft will also grow. Therefore, it stands to reason that the growth rates for these socioeconomic variables will explain the level of aircraft that could be based at the Airport during the planning period. As mentioned in the inventory chapter, all socioeconomic data was obtained from the 1999 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast. This data has a number of data sets depicting Indian River County population. However, only the information pertaining to the number of 20 to 64 year olds was utilized. Based on the age breakout in the available data, this range provided the most likely group of residents that would own an aircraft. As seen in Table 3-3, the growth rate for this group through the year 2011 is projected at an average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent. Personal income's effect on the number of based aircraft at an airport is best measured by the amount of disposable income the surrounding population has. Unfortunately, there are only data sets for per capita and real 2002 3-5 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update (Irrer SlBAST!AN ~..~ __ .r> '" -~~ .-. HOME Of PtLICAN tSLAND personal income available. Data from the per capita set was not used due to the fact that it incorporates the information already considered in the population data. Conversely, the real person income provides a measure of the overall growth of income for the County, which provides a more similar measure to disposable income. Table 3-3 projects the 3.7 percent average annual growth rate for the County's real personal income. TABLE 3-3 ADDITIONAL INDIAN RIVER COUNTY SOCIOECONOMIC DATA Population Real Personal Ages 20-64 Income 1997 49,699 $ 3,061,901,000 2000 53,115 3,503,281,000 2005 59,203 4,077,409,000 2010 65,080 $ 4,912,990,000 Average Annual Growth Rate 2.1% 3.7% Source: State and County Economics Forecast, Bureau of Economic and Busmess Research. Because both of these provide a good indication of the level of aircraft that can be expected at an airport, the average of the two was taken. This results in an average annual growth rate of 2.9 percent. When applied to the current number of based aircraft, this rate projects a total of 79 aircraft based at Sebastian by the end of the planning period. The total number of based aircraft for each forecast year is presented as part of Table 3-4 in the following section. Projected Fleet Mix Besides projecting the total number of based aircraft, it is important to project the fleet mix of those aircraft. A breakdown of the based aircraft fleet mix is necessary because different types of aircraft require different facilities. For example, jet aircraft typically need larger hangars, greater wing-tip clearances, and have different fuel requirements than single-engine piston aircraft. Typically, the based aircraft fleet mix is determined by studying the historic fleet mix. Since this data is not available, national trends were examinedand airport tenants were interviewed. Every year, the nation's active general aviation fleet is published as part of the FAA's forecasts. According to this data, nearly all of the aircraft types in the nation have continued to experience annual growth. The breakdown of the nation's active fleet includes: single-engine at 81 percent, multi-engine (piston and turboprop) at 12 percent, jet aircraft at 3 percent, and rotorcraft at 4 percent. The based aircraft and operations at Sebastian have primarily been single and multi-engine aircraft. While jet aircraft occasionally fly into the Airport, there is no record of any jets based at Sebastian; however, this is not to say that a jet will not be based at the Airport in the future. In fact, the operations forecast address the fact that small jet aircraft currently fly into the airfield on occasion. As such, it is expected that even without significant facility improvements, the Airport will see a few based jets by the end of the planning period. This is supported when the nation's active general aviation fleet mix is applied to the based aircraft forecast. The same assumption holds true for rotorcraft at Sebastian. Therefore, it is projected that while the current and future mix of based aircraft at Sebastian will remain primarily single and multi-engine aircraft, the Airport should expect to be more similar to the national mix by 2022. These numbers are presented in Table 3-4. 2002 3-6 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update (Irrer SEBASTIAN ~~ '_ "._ ._,r-", _'__' - -,...~_..""'i --, HOME OF PtLlCAN ISlAND TABLE 3-4 FORECAST BASED AIRCRAFT FLEET MIX Single-Engine Multi-Engine Jet Rotor Total Year Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Aircraft Base Year 2000 32 76% 10 24% 0 0% 0 0% 42 Forecast 2007 39 76% 12 24% 0 0% 0 0% 51 2012 45 75% 14 23% 0 1% 0 1% 59 2022 57 72% 17 21% 2 3% 3 4% 79 Source: THE LPA GROUP INCORPORATED, 2000. AIRCRAFT OPERA nONS The FAA defines an operation as either a single aircraft landing or takeoff. Under this definition, an aircraft "touch and go" is considered two operations, since during the maneuver the aircraft conducts a landing and a takeoff. This section includes a breakdown of the current operations, the forecast of these operations, and analyses of the specific type of operations conducted, including the overall locallitinerant split, instrument operations, and military operations. Current Aircraft Operations Because there is no reliable account of past aircraft operations for Sebastian Municipal, the development of the operations forecast is based primarily on interviews with airport management and airport tenants. Through these discussions, the current level of aircraft operations was established. As stated by a number of tenants and users, nearly all of the operations are conducted during daylight hours (typically 9:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.). While night operations do occur at the Airport, the number for such was considered insignificant. Also, operations have decreased from past levels as a result of a decrease in "touch and go" operations for training versus the more common stop and taxi back operations conducted today. Sky Dive Sebastian and Velocity were the only tenants to provide reliable estimates of the operations they conducted at the Airport. The combined operations of these two tenants accounted for the largest number of local operations. Unfortunately, these operations did not account for a majority of the Airport's based aircraft fleet. It is assumed the remaining 36 based aircraft primarily conduct local operations. However, since there is no historical data, national totals were utilized to create an average level of annual operations that could be expected from each of these 36 based aircraft. According to the FAA Aerospace Forecast, there were just over 40 million operations conducted by the 206,392 active general aviation aircraft in 1999. This results in each active aircraft conducting an average of 194 annual operations. Assuming the unaccounted 36 based aircraft at Sebastian are active, it is realistic that each would support 200 annual operations. All together the operations by Skydive Sebastian, Velocity, and the remaining 36 based aircraft calculate to 18,628 local operations. It is very difficult for anyone to estimate the level of itinerant operations at Sebastian. At first is was thought that fuel sales or overnight parking records would provide information to the level of itinerant aircraft; however, this information was not available. Therefore, the locallitinerant split from the 1993 Master Plan was utilized. This split of 71 percent local and 29 percent itinerant originates from the 1995-2010 Florida Aviation System Plan (F ASP). Accordingly, if 18,628 represent the 71 percent local operations, then the 29 percent of itinerant would equal 7,609 operations. This brings the current total annual operations for Sebastian Municipal to 26,237 operations. 2002 3-7 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update <mCf SlBAST!AN ~ ~~~ HOME: Of PUJCAN' ISl.AND Forecast of Aircraft Operations In the previous Master Plan, the average annual growth rate for operations was 3.5 percent. This was based on data from the 1995-2010 FASP. This forecast resulted in substantial growth during the planning period, which the Airport never achieved. While this was an obvious overestimation for the time, this may not be the case today. When these forecasts were made, all aspects of the general aviation industry were in the midst of a severe decline as a result of product liability. Since, the industry has enjoyed its sixth consecutive year of recovery. However, because the source of the 3.5 percent growth rate is not known, it will not be used in this study. As with the based aircraft forecast, it is assumed that aircraft operations have a direct relationship to both population and income. Again the logic behind this correlation is that as population increases, so too will the number of pilots and aircraft owners in the area. Also, as the overall level of income increases, the ability for individuals in the area to fly general aviation aircraft will increase. The average annual growth rate of these two indicators (2.9 percent) was utilized to project the current estimate of annual operations through the planning period. This results in a forecast of 49,210 annual operations at Sebastian Municipal in 2022. Although the potential for significant growth exists at Sebastian, it was felt that a slightly conservative forecast would be more realistic. This is due to the fact that general aviation growth, according to the FAA, is expected to include more operations of the larger twins and jet aircraft operated by businesses and corporations. However, the reality remains that the airfield at Sebastian may be limited with respect to the size of aircraft that can be accommodated, simply due to the available runway length. Although a longer runway, navigational aids, and a control tower were built, it is still believed that Sebastian would not serve a significant number of the larger twin and jet aircraft. The reasons behind this assumption include: + Currently there is not enough of a business/corporate base in Sebastian to require an airport that can support large twin and jet aircraft. Likewise, the businesses demanding these aircraft are not expected to increase very much over the twenty-year planning period. The coastline of the Sebastian area (south Brevard County and North Indian River County) has very little development in the way of resorts, condominiums, or attractions. The absence of these types of facilities along the coast or river, lessen the demand for larger general aviation aircraft. Sebastian Municipal Airport lies 25 minutes driving time south of Melbourne International Airport and just 15 minutes north of Vero Beach Municipal. Both of these airports have runways over 7,000 feet, instrument approaches, full service FBOs, and FAA Air Traffic Control Towers (ATCT). + + The limitations associated with larger twin and jet actIVIty are expanded upon in the section discussing operational fleet mix. The annual operations for each forecast year are presented as part of Table 3-5 in the section addressing the local and itinerant operational split. Types of Aircraft Operations This section will take the forecasts of total annual operations and look at the different classifications of activity. These shall include a break out of the local versus itinerant split, operational fleet mix, instrument operations, and military operations. Local versus Itinerant Split The FAA typically divides all aircraft operations into local and itinerant subcategories. Local operations are those arrivals or departures performed by aircraft that remain in the airport traffic pattern, or are 2002 3-8 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update <mer Sf,BASTIAN ~.'"~' ~~~ HOME Of Pt.L.lCAN ISLAND within sight of the airport. This covers an area within a 20 nautical mile radius of the airfield. Local operations are most often associated with training activity and flight instruction, or for an airport like Sebastian, all skydiving flights would be classified into the local operations category. Itinerant operations are arrivals or departures other than local operations, performed by either based or transient aircraft, that do not remain in the airport traffic pattern or within a 20 nautical mile radius. Unfortunately, there is no way to estimate the current locallitinerant split for Sebastian. The base data from the 1993 Master Plan had a local versus itinerant split of 71 percent and 29 percent, respectively. Conversely, for the years 1990 to 1998, the FAA TAF had a split of 37 percent local and 63 percent itinerant for the past. The 1999 split was 32 percent local and 68 percent itinerant. Skydive Sebastian and Velocity both conduct primarily local operations. Based on the fact that these two operators conduct a majority of the operations, it is difficult to believe that the itinerant level of operations would be nearly double that of the local. In fact, the split in the 1993 Master Plan seems more realistic given the type of operations that typically occur at Sebastian. Therefore, the 71 percent local and 29 percent itinerant split will be used throughout the planning period. The effect of this split on the total annual operations is illustrated in Table 3-5. I TABLE 3-5 i FORECAST OF ANNUAL OPERATIONS Local Itinerant Total Annual Year Operations Operations Aircraft Operations Base Year 2000 18,628 7,609 26,237 Forecast 2007 22,756 9,294 32,050 2012 26,252 10,722 36,974 2022 34,939 14,271 49,210 Source: THE LPA GROUP INCORPORATED, 2000. Operational Fleet Mix Operational fleet mix is an important factor in determining the need for both airside and landside improvements at an airport, as well as quantifying noise impacts to the local community. Because none of the previous forecast data provide a breakdown of the operational fleet mix, airport management and airport tenants were interviewed to estimate the current and future mix. Sebastian primarily serves single-engine and multi-engine aircraft with very little jet activity. For local operations, it was determined that approximately 54 percent were conducted by multi-engine aircraft (primarily Sky dive Sebastian), while the rest were single-engine operations. There are currently no local operations conducted by jet or rotorcraft. As for the itinerant operations, it is assumed that three-fourths of the annual operations are conducted by single-engine aircraft and the remaining as multi-engine. While the Airport does accommodate the occasional small jet and rotorcraft operations, it is estimated that the percent for these two categories is less than one. Therefore, both were left at zero for the current operational mix. The future operational mix was primarily based on keeping the same balance between single and muIti- engine aircraft while at the same time adding in some small jet and rotorcraft operations. All jet operations are limited to the much smaller business jets (i.e. Falcon 10/20/50, Citation 2/5, and Learjet 2002 3-9 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update <mer SEBAST!AN ~..~~..... ~~ HOMI Of PWCMI ISI.AND 23/24/25/28/29/31/55) and conditional to various takeoff weights and configuration. The reason for such an infrequent and limited number of jet operation at Sebastian is due to their limited facilities and the proximity of other airports. Extending a runway at the Airport would increase the number of jet aircraft that could operate from Sebastian. However, if an extension capable of accommodating larger transport general aviation aircraft could be justified and constructed, it might still be unreasonable to anticipate jet aircraft at the Airport. This projection is based on the Airport's proximity to other airports and the increasing potential for a larger national fleet of general aviation aircraft. Therefore, Sebastian should expect limited jet aircraft activity during the planning period. While the level of single and multi-engine operations are expected to remain constant, an increase is expected for both small jet and rotorcraft operations. These increases are anticipated to approach levels similar to that of the national active aircraft forecasts. The FAA projects the active fleet to have five percent jet and four percent rotorcraft in 2011. For Sebastian, it is anticipated that it may take until the end of the planning period to reach these levels. The growth in rotorcraft is anticipated to occur at a faster rate than jets due to the limited facilities required by these aircraft. Therefore, the forecasted operational fleet mix presented in Table 3-6, shows a gradual movement towards these percentages for jet and rotorcraft operations. I .. TABLE 3-6 ......1 .. PROJECTED ()PERATIONAL FLEET MIx .. Single-Engine Multi-Engine Jet Rotor Total Year Number I Percent Number I Percent Number I Percent Number I Percent Aircraft Base Year 2000 14,168 54% 12,069 46% 0 0% 0 0% 26,237 Forecast 2007 16,986 53% 14,102 44% 321 1% 641 2% 32,050 2012 19,227 52% 15,899 43% 739 2% 1,109 3% 36,974 2022 24,113 49% 20,668 42% 2,461 5% 1,968 4% 49,210 Source: THE LPA GROUP INCORPORATED, 2000. Instrument Operations Currently there are no precision or non-precision instrument approaches at Sebastian. However, aircraft can still depart the airport environment under instrument meteorological conditions. This is accomplished by filing a flight plan with the St. Petersburg Flight Service Station (FSS) and then activating that flight plan once airborne. For airports like Sebastian, the FSS will issue a "Void if not off Time" which provides departing instrument traffic a window to contact and enter controlled airspace. Typically the forecast of instrument operations helps determine the type of improvements, such as approach lighting, additional approaches, or arrival/departure corridors, which may be required at an airport. At Sebastian, the type or number of such facility requirements will not be needed until some form of an instrument approach is established. It is assumed that the Airport will have at least one Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) instrument approach before the end of the planning period. Subsequent chapters of this study will address how such an approach can be implemented for the airfield. Until such an approach is installed, it is difficult to determine with any accuracy the level of instrument operations the runways may support. 2002 3 -10 ,1/ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update <mer SlBAST!AN ~-' " :>~..r- -..;: ___' -'.~-.'" -- KOME OF Pt.LICAN ISLAND Military Operations Based on interviews, there have been virtually no military operations at Sebastian. There is no reason to believe that military operations will increase during the course of this planning period. As such, no forecasts have been made. PEAK ACTIVITY Peak operational activity such as peak month, average day of the peak month, and peak hour forecasts are used in facility sizing and to determine the Airport's ability to accommodate projected demand. Unfortunately, as a result of having no A TCT facilities, monthly tabulations for Sebastian were not available to determine thepeak month for aircraft operations. Based on interviews with airport management and airport tenants, the airfield typically experiences the highest traffic levels during the months beginning in October and proceeding through April. This peak is essentially the result of increased skydiving activity. It was estimated that the average percentage of annual operations conducted in these peak months equals 9.7 percent. Because there is limited data to substantiate peak activity, 9.7 percent was applied to the forecasted annual operations through the year 2022 to estimate the peak month operations for each year. It is realistic to approximate that peak operations could occur in any of these seven months. The values for average day peak month and for the peak hour were calculated using the FAA's methodology found in Advisory Circular 150/5360-7, "Planning and Design Considerations for Airport Terminal Building Development." Under this methodology, the average day peak month is derived by taking the number of operations calculated for the peak month and dividing that figure by the number of days in the peak month. For Sebastian, the average of 30 days per month was used. No historical data was available to determine the peak hour operations at the Airport; however, the interviews conducted asked for an estimation of the peak hour. Unfortunately, very different responses were received. Therefore it was estimated that 15 percent of the average day peak month would best represent the number of peak hour operations. The projections for future peak operations at the Airport are shown in Table 3-7. Year Peak Hour Average Day Peak Month Total Annual Peak Month Base Year 2000 Forecast 2007 2012 2022 26,237 2,545 85 13 Source: 32,050 3,109 36,974 3,586 49,210 4,773 THE LPA GROUP INCORPORATED, 2000. 104 120 159 16 18 24 2002 3 -11 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SEBASTIAN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT Master Plan Update (Irrer SlB~T~ ~.-.r~.. ~~ HOMt Of PWCAN ISLAND SUMMARY OF A VIA TION ACTIVITY FORECASTS Table 3-8 presents a summary of the forecasts developed for this Master Plan Update. Overall, the current activity at Sebastian Municipal Airport is expected to show growth throughout the forecast period. In summary, the data and methods used to forecast aviation demand for the Airport are consistent with those used by the FAA and other airports located in the State of Florida and therefore, accurately reflect current activity trends of the surrounding region and nation. \'i.\. ....i\< ....i ...... ..'fA.BLE3-8 .......'..........,.. ......... ... .i<r ....... SUMMARy OF AVIA TIONACTIVITY FORECASTS ...... .. Forecast 2000 2007 2012 2022 Based Aircraft Total 42 51 59 79 Single- 32 39 45 57 Engine Multi- 10 12 14 17 Engine Jet 0 0 0 2 Rotor 0 0 0 3 Annual Operations Total 26,237 32,050 36,974 49,210 Local 18,628 22,756 26,252 34,939 Itinerant 7,609 9,294 10,722 14,271 Peak Activity Peak 2,545 3,109 3,586 4,773 Month Average Day Peak 85 104 120 159 Month Peak 13 16 18 24 Hour Source: THE LPA GROUP INCORPORATED, 2000. 2002 3 -12